Projecting the impact of prolonged food insecurity and education interruption on economic growth in Lebanon

Adopted from relief web, report by World Vision International 

Lebanon grapples with multiple crises, including ongoing disruptions in education and worsening food insecurity.

The World Food Programme estimates that around 1.4 million people are severely food insecure, while a million children face disrupted schooling. To gain a better understanding of the pressing economic implications of these interconnected crises, the research aims to shed light on the potential future burdens the nation may bear.

Executive Summary

Lebanon's multifaceted challenges, including prolonged education disruptions and escalating food insecurity, have prompted World Vision Lebanon to commission Qualisus Consulting to conduct a research study aimed at comprehending the potential economic consequences of these intertwined crises. The core objective of this research is to gain insights into the potential economic implications of education disruptions and food insecurity in Lebanon. By unraveling these impacts, the study seeks to equip policymakers and stakeholders with valuable insights to advocate for proactive interventions and systemic reforms.

The research team employs a comprehensive methodology, encompassing a systematic scoping review of the literature to derive key insights and a decision tree predictive model analysis based on primary data from Lebanon. The scoping review explores the interconnections between disrupted education, food security, and their economic implications. The decision tree model scrutinizes correlations between variables like disrupted education, food security, and their effects on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Key Findings:

• The scoping review findings indicate that a profound and substantial impact of interrupted education on the local and global economy, as well as the learning outcomes of students.

• Food insecurity in adults was associated with higher annual healthcare costs.

• Malnutrition during emergencies has significant economic consequences including increased healthcare costs, lost productivity, reduced educational attainment, and heightened social costs.

• Economic cost of malnutrition is higher in low-income countries and higher in women than men.

• The Average Protein Supply per capita is a significant predictor of national GDP per capita, emphasizing that good nutrition is integral to the nation’s economic well-being.

• In Lebanon, higher Progression to Secondary School rates correlate with a more robust economic status, as reflected by the GDP per capita.

• Lebanon exhibits a trend where higher progression rates to secondary schools are associated with better overall economic performance.

• In Lebanon, a higher percentage of students repeating grades in primary school aligns with a reduced GDP per capita, indicating potential educational challenges that could impact economic growth.

• The Covid-19 pandemic and economic recession have further reinforced the connection between education, food security, and GDP.

You can access the full report here:Highlighting the impact of prolonged food insecurity and education interruption on economic growth in Lebanon..pdf